Early Signs of Cooling Temperatures
Since 2015, the goal of the Paris Agreement has been to reduce global warming to 1.5 degrees. Whether Canada can achieve this remains a serious and vital question for our future, but it is worth noting just how much tempers have cooled in Alberta in relation to this issue. It has been a tumultuous ride, but reflecting on the language, consistency, and economic realities of the past few years leads to the conclusion that there has been real progress. The once-impossible-seeming pathway to achieving net-zero for Canada and the energy industry seems attainable.
Any Liberal who has campaigned in Alberta will confirm that words matter when discussing Canada’s future: talking about jobs and the economy has always been less contentious than mentioning emissions reduction or global targets. The notion of a green future and a strong economy seemed at odds, and nowhere more so than in Alberta. There was a disconnect between the realities of global market trends (which forecast peak oil demand by 2040) and what Albertans were willing to believe about their economic future.
For nearly a decade, the Liberal party has been consistent and insistent on using language which balanced the notions of a green future and the economy. In 2016, the recently-elected Liberal government released the Pan-Canadian Framework on Clean Growth and Climate Change. The framework spoke to the comfort level of Canadians at the time: it focused on climate change in terms of driving innovation and advancing technology to ensure Canada’s competitiveness in a global low-carbon economy.
Four years later, the government introduced A Healthy Environment and a Healthy Economy, a plan that emphasized that what was good for the environment was also good for the economy. This plan built on the previous one, and ensured that economic impacts were front of mind on the pathway to a cleaner future.
The most recent plan, 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan: Clean Air, Strong Economy, states its goal in the clearest possible language and provides further details on how electricity generation, transportation, innovation, and energy will be transformed in the years ahead.
Each successive plan has provided a clearer picture of how emissions reductions will be achieved; they have also strengthened Canada’s targets (the Pan-Canadian Framework aimed for a 19% emissions reduction from 2005 levels; the 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan targets for 40–45%). Despite these emboldened targets and the reality of disruptive change, it seems that the rhetoric has been the first thing to show decreases. In 2020, the oil and gas industry accounted for 27% of the country’s overall emissions, 74% of which were from Alberta. There’s never been any doubt that industry change would inevitably be felt hardest here at home. Oppositional rhetoric that once told Albertans, convincingly, to bury their collective heads in the sand seems to have all but disappeared. Alberta’s largest municipalities have passed Climate Emergencies Declarations and recent polling by Janet Brown reveals that 62% of Albertans think more should be done about addressing climate change. Fifty-nine per cent think that transitioning away from oil and gas would benefit Alberta’s economy in the long run. It finally seems like the message of “clean air, strong economy” has brought Albertans to a more realistic sense of our role in meeting climate targets, as well as ensuring better positioning in terms of the changing global marketplace.
Two important things to watch for in the year ahead are the industry’s reaction to the final details of the oil and gas cap, and revealing of some tangible investments in decarbonizing technologies and projects. In July 2022, the government issued a discussion paper that will help ensure our largest emitting sector is doing its part to meet Canada’s climate goals. The cap will likely be either a regulated cap-and-trade system or a modified GHG emissions pricing system; the result will depend upon submissions from industry and stakeholders, as well as the Net Zero Advisory Body. The industry has lobbied for more flexibility, softer timelines, and more subsidies for investments in carbon capture technology; the reaction to the cap will be a true test of how serious the industry is about achieving a green vision of the future.
In my view, the most significant change we’ve seen is the public tone that the industry has taken. Today, Albertans hear ads on their drive home emphasizing the six major oil companies’ commitment to net-zero. These “Let’s Clear the Air” ads are encouraging Albertans, through billboards and catchy slogans, to go online and check out the Pathways Alliance commitments to decarbonize.
The oil and gas sector has been in the crosshairs of change for some time. Rather than continuing to fight climate targets, the Pathways Alliance has set its very own targets, which are in line with Canada’s net-zero energy future. With $60 billion already committed for decarbonizing technologies, it will be important to see some of the industry’s recent, record-breaking profits invested in tangible carbon-capture projects and achievable solutions such as methane-emission reduction and electrification.
There are very real challenges ahead — limited available and scalable technologies, and the high costs of implementation, to name a few. One thing is clear — the rhetoric has cooled. Constant reminders of global climate realities, declining global energy forecasts on peak production, and the Liberal government’s consistent and collaborative approach to working with Alberta have all played a role in bringing about these early signs of success.
It may once have been a pipe dream but today — at least publicly — we have the oil and gas sector and the federal Liberal government singing “oh Canada!’ from the same green songbook.
Submitted by Jordan Stein, two-time federal Liberal candidate and climate change advocate.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-oil-and-gas-poll-1.6652674
